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房贷利率年内首升 下半年调控趋严 炒房不划算

时间:2019-07-16
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7月初,3月“小阳春”在京购房的小李再度来到建行东四支行房贷业务中心,但眼前的景象与他之前在此办贷款时的情形大相径庭。“那时候人多得都要排队,是中介提前很久来取的号,银行员工都忙不过来。怎么也想象不到有银行员工比客户多的时候。”小李说。

“靠投资投机房地产来理财的居民和企业,最终都会发现其实很不划算。”上月,中国人民银行党委书记,中国银保监会主席郭树清在第十一届陆家嘴论坛上,再度提示了当前“房住不炒”的格局。

。最新数据也反映出这一大趋势融360大数据研究院7月9日最新发布的监测数据显示,6月份,全国首套房贷款平均利率为5.423%,较上月的5.416%略有上涨;二套房贷款平均利率为5.75%,同样高于上月的5.74%。这意味着今年以来房贷利率连降的趋势终止,开始回弹。

反弹趋势明显

“现在买房的人大多是有需求的,比如要买首套房的,小房换大房的,这样的顾客顾虑会比较多。对于房贷,3月份,4月份市场比较好的时候,大家会觉得利率还会下降,但现在并没有出现这样的变化,这几个月我们的带看量,成交量都下滑不少。“一位房产中介告诉《金融时报》记者。

事实上,虽然幅度有限,但上月银行房贷利率在年内首度出现回弹,且房贷利率持平和上涨银行数大幅增加。

XX在360数据研究所监测的35个城市的533家银行分行和分支机构中,除贷款亏损银行外,422家银行的首套贷款利率持平,较上月增加28,占79.17%。 66家银行的利率上升,比上月增加39;抵押贷款利率下降的银行已从上个月的108降至44。

值得注意的是,尽管大连,佛山和武汉等少数二线城市在6月份降低了抵押贷款利率,但大多数二线城市已显示出抵押贷款利率上升的迹象。

“一些二线城市已经降低,其中大多数已经通过提高抵押贷款利率来调整银行。尚未发现新一轮集中度降低的现象。“360数据研究所分析师李万福表示,继青岛,南京和成都之后,天津,苏州,福州的抵押贷款平均利率,宁波,南宁等地6月份增加,变化频率相对较快。南京已连续两个月上调。此外,宁波,苏州等地的一些银行也表示,目前的抵押贷款额度相对偏紧,或暂停放贷,或贷款时间不确定。

对于一线城市,李万福表示,由于多家银行的抵押贷款利率下调,北京和上海的首套房贷利率略有下降,从5.39%和4.92%降至5.37%,分别为4.91%;深圳维持上个月的水平没有变化。广州地区开始反弹,六家银行最近提高了抵押贷款利率。光大银行率先将首套房贷的利率调整至20%。

突出显示城市差异

“现在,一些城市商业银行可以将北京首套住房贷款的基准利率提高5%,尽管它们仅用于商业贷款,但批准并不像外国投资那么严格。”准备在不久的将来买房的小赵一直在询问银行的抵押贷款利率。信息。

In June, Beijing’s first and second home loan interest rates both fell slightly. Among the 30 bank branches and branches monitored by the 360 Data Research Institute in Beijing, HSBC’s first-home loan interest rate fell to the benchmark level, and all other banks’ benchmarks rose by 10%. In terms of second-home loan interest rates, the mainstream The loan interest rate is up 20% on the basis of the benchmark. Foreign banks have a slight advantage, and there is a case where the minimum execution benchmark is 10% and 15% higher. In terms of down payment ratio, the policy area in Beijing was the lowest 30%, and the first set of non-policy housing was 3.5%. In June, China Merchants Bank lowered the down payment ratio of non-policy housing to 30%.

In terms of mortgage interest rates, major cities are no longer "a game of chess." The difference between the cities with the same volume is gradually widening. According to data monitored by 360 Data Research Institute, in June, Tianjin’s first home loan interest rate returned to more than 5.00%, and Nanning once again became the city with the highest mortgage interest rate. The first interest rate was 5.95%.

“The second-tier cities of Harbin and Zhuhai have squeezed into the top ten in the country because of lower interest rates. Some banks in both places have adjusted the interest rate of the first home loan to the benchmark level. Although banks in Zhuhai have generally implemented a 5% increase in benchmarks, they also said that VIP customers can enjoy Benchmark interest rate." Li Wanfu said.

Guo Shuqing said at the Lujiazui Forum that the real estate market has strong regional characteristics, and it is normal for housing prices in different regions to rise and fall. However, the house is used for living, not for speculation. History has proven that countries that rely too much on real estate to achieve and sustain economic prosperity will ultimately have to pay a heavy price.

At the moment when “the policy of the city” has become an important idea for the regulation of the property market, the differences between cities have become prominent. For example, the Enshi City Housing Association of Hubei issued《关于稳定恩施房地产市场价格预警的通知》in June. Although the government department subsequently stated that the notice was not mandatory, it can be seen that some third- and fourth-tier cities are currently feeling the pressure of falling house prices.

xx对于大多数二线城市来说,“降温”是主要基调。例如,在西安和苏州的房地产市场,短期房价快速上涨,并在5月和6月,他们加强了控制。在目前房地产市场稳定的基调下,房价过快上涨和快速下跌需要引起关注。

加息可能会持续

251次这是今年上半年全国房地产调控的数量,由中原房地产研究中心计算,比去年上半年的192倍高出31% 。

监管的转折点出现在4月19日。3月份房地产市场经历了“小阳春”之后,中共中央政治局重申“房屋不投机”,以防止房地产市场进入夏季。在4月,5月和6月,调整次数分别达到60,41和46次。

最近,房地产市场的监管领域也在扩大。为加强房地产信托的风险防范,中国银行保险监督管理委员会对一些增长速度过快,增幅过大的信托公司进行了访谈警告。这些信托公司需要控制业务增长并改善风险管理和控制。中国保险监督管理委员会要求这些信托公司应全面提升,全面贯彻“居住与非投机”的一般要求,严格执行房地产市场调控政策和现行房地产信托监管要求。

监管收紧也反映在抵押贷款利率上。 “六月份按揭贷款的利率波动很大,而且频率相对较快。天津和南宁等城市在短时间内降低了价格并提高了利率。一些银行在同月首次提高了抵押贷款利率,后来表示配额紧张。不能放钱。“李万福说。

对于未来趋势,李万福认为,在下半年,银行的信贷资金总体上比上半年更加紧张,加上热点城市的房地产调控,预计更多的城市和银行将加入抵押贷款加息军队。

本文来自英国“金融时报”

欲了解更多精彩信息,请访问金融网站(www.jrj.com.cn)

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